Will TikTok Be Banned in the US? What’s Next for Influencers and Users Worldwide

From numerous calls with clients and industry insiders, I’ve got a pretty good idea of what’s going on with TikTok—and it actually looks like the ban may take place. This is huge for influencers, public figures, and brands who rely on this platform as a key part of their strategy. With the January 19, 2025 deadline looming, the potential ban could ripple far beyond just social media creators. Secretly, I’d imagine some industries, like the music industry, might even be celebrating. TikTok has fundamentally changed how music is discovered and consumed, favouring quick hits over long-term artistry.

Even as an owner of a social media agency myself, I’ve had to adapt how we work tremendously. A few years ago, we could create maybe 15 great Instagram image and Facebook posts per day. Those posts had a lot of thought go into them—shooting content that morning, editing it, and writing thoughtful captions that connected with an already-engaged audience.

Now, one video for TikTok is almost a full-day process. From brainstorming concepts, filming, editing, and making client changes, it’s an exhausting process for what essentially amounts to “one post.” And unlike an Instagram feed, where you know your audience will see your work, TikTok’s algorithm is unpredictable. Whether a post takes off or flops depends entirely on whether TikTok decides to show it to people, with no rhyme or reason why one creator doing a trend goes viral and another doesn’t.

As a business, it’s been incredibly challenging to adapt to this massive shift in the industry. The expectation from clients is understandably high—they see a TikTok post as just another post. But the reality is, the time, energy, and skills required for TikTok are entirely different from what social media used to be. Today, I can’t just hire someone brilliant at writing and creative strategy. I need someone who’s also a videographer, a video editor, confident in voiceovers, hot on trends, witty, and able to take on multiple roles—just to do the same job we were doing a few years ago.

Here’s a closer look at what might happen if TikTok is banned, how likely it is, and how creators and businesses can adapt.

How Likely Is the TikTok Ban to Happen?

The possibility of a TikTok ban in the U.S. is more real than ever, given the political climate and the firm stance taken by the U.S. government. ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, has until January 19, 2025, to sell its U.S. operations. If ByteDance complies, the ban could be avoided. However, selling a significant part of a global tech giant’s operations is a complex process, and no deal has been finalised.

The bipartisan concern over TikTok’s data privacy and its potential connections to the Chinese government remains strong. Congress has introduced multiple bills targeting TikTok, and the Biden administration has supported stricter regulations on foreign-owned tech platforms. TikTok has appealed the divestment order, claiming it violates constitutional rights, including free speech. However, the U.S. Supreme Court is set to review the case in early January 2025, which could either clear the way for a ban or block it.

If ByteDance does not divest TikTok’s U.S. operations or courts rule against TikTok, the ban is highly likely. With bipartisan support for action against TikTok, the odds of a ban are significant—many experts estimate it at 60–70% unless ByteDance finds a resolution.

How the Ban Would Happen

If the U.S. government enforces the TikTok ban, the process of losing access would likely unfold in stages.

First, if ByteDance does not divest by January 19, 2025, the app would be removed from app stores within 7–10 days, meaning new users could no longer download it.

Next, existing users would keep the app temporarily, but without updates or security patches. Over time, this would cause the app to degrade and become less functional.

Finally, internet service providers (ISPs) would block TikTok’s servers, rendering the app inaccessible to all users. This could take 30–60 days after the ban begins. By March 2025, TikTok could be entirely inaccessible in the U.S.

The Music Industry and TikTok

The music industry is one of the sectors that could actually benefit from a TikTok ban. Right now, building an artist is almost impossible unless a label fully prioritises and pushes you—or unless you have a significant amount of money to fund a relentless TikTok campaign.

Music has become dull, with charts dominated by viral TikTok sounds that people dance to or mimic for trends. A song might explode overnight, but its shelf life is often barely a week. For labels, the reliance on TikTok for marketing has disrupted traditional methods of developing artists. It’s no longer about nurturing long-lasting careers or albums; instead, it’s about creating “TikTok-friendly” songs that might catch a fleeting wave of popularity.

Incredibly, one platform has disrupted an industry that has remained relatively consistent despite evolving formats, from vinyl to CDs to Spotify. TikTok has turned music marketing into a chaotic, unpredictable landscape where labels often rely on artists themselves to do the heavy lifting of going viral. Uploading a song to Spotify isn’t rocket science, after all—it’s incredibly simple. This shift has made labels feel increasingly irrelevant, as their traditional role in developing and marketing artists diminishes.

If TikTok is banned, labels might regain some of their relevance, returning to a model where they invest in long-term artist development. They might be able to recreate pop stars with lasting impact, rather than viral sensations who disappear in a month or two.

How the Ban Would Impact Creators and Followers

TikTok creators, particularly those outside the U.S., stand to lose their American followers, which for many make up the largest portion of their audience. American users account for approximately 100 million active monthly users, making it TikTok’s largest market outside of China.

Creators will see a sharp drop in visibility and engagement if these followers are cut off. Moreover, TikTok audiences are less engaged than those on Instagram or YouTube, meaning creators will find it harder to convert followers to other platforms.

Once creators stop appearing in users’ daily feeds, they risk being forgotten quickly. TikTok’s algorithm may have made it easy to go viral, but the reality is just as harsh: once you’re out of sight, you’re out of mind.

Other Industries That Could Benefit

Traditional advertising platforms like television, radio, and print could see a resurgence as brands reallocate their TikTok ad budgets. Instagram, YouTube, and Facebook would also benefit from the migration of creators and brands, potentially driving up their ad revenues.

E-commerce platforms might also adapt to fill the gap left by TikTok’s shopping features, while smaller social apps like BeReal or Triller could see a rise in popularity as users look for alternatives.

Could This Trigger Bans in Other Countries?

The U.S. ban could set a global precedent. Other countries have already voiced similar concerns about TikTok’s ties to China and its data practices.

The UK government has previously scrutinised TikTok for privacy and security concerns. A U.S. ban could reignite discussions about banning or restricting TikTok in the UK as well.

European regulators have imposed fines on TikTok for violating data protection laws, and a U.S. ban could embolden European countries to take further action.

Australia and Canada, both close political allies of the U.S., might follow suit, especially if the ban proves effective in addressing security concerns.

Why You Need to Act Now

If TikTok is banned, creators who fail to prepare risk losing their audience—and their relevance—almost immediately.

The clock is ticking. Diversifying your platforms and deepening audience engagement now will give creators and brands the best chance of surviving and thriving, even if TikTok disappears.